TSG vs. Dortmund - The fight for third

“Get stuck in against Dortmund,” said Julian Nagelsmann to Alex Nouri after last weekend’s win. Werder travel to Dortmund on the final matchday with a win giving the Green-Whites a chance at reaching next season’s Europa League. Hoffenheim host Augsburg, who are yet to totally secure their Bundesliga status. All four teams have something to play for, but what has to happen in Sinsheim and Dortmund for Oliver Baumann and Co. to achieve their objective.

SCENARIOS

1 - TSG win, Dortmund lose: Then the situation is clear. TSG would finish third with a win if Dortmund lose, three points clear of those in yellow and black.

2 - TSG win, Dortmund draw: Another clear outcome, as this scenario would leave Hoffenheim two points clear of Dortmund in the final standings in the race for third.

3 - TSG win, BVB win: This would leave both teams on 64 points after 34 games, meaning it would come down to goal difference. TSG must better Dortmund’s winning margin by four goals. For example, a 1-0 win for Dortmund coupled with a 6-0 win for Hoffenheim would send Julian Nagelsmann’s side directly into the Champions League.

4 - TSG draw, Dortmund lose: This case would see TSG claim third place, one point better off that Thomas Tuchel’s side.

5 - TSG draw, Dortmund draw: This would not change anything in the final reckoning and the table would stay as it is now - with Dortmund in third and Hoffenheim in fourth.

6 - TSG draw, Dortmund win: Dortmund would finish third by two points.

7 - TSG lose, Dortmund draw or win: Dortmund would claim third place in this scenario, and Hoffenheim would have to settle for fourth.

8 - TSG lose, Dortmund lose: This would also be decided on goal difference. If TSG were to lose 1-0 to Augsburg and Dortmund lose 3-0, then Dortmund would remain third. If Dortmund were to lose 6-0 then TSG would leapfrog them and claim third place.

If the two sides end up finishing level on goal difference after 34 Matchdays, then Dortmund would claim third place on the basis that they have a better head-to-head record against Hoffenheim from the two games played this season, with a draw and a win from two games against Julian Nagelsmann’s side.

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